Welcome to the Third Annual Bloggers’ Stock Picking Contest!
This will always seem somewhat paradoxical to my regular readers as I pretty much never talk about stock picking or individual investments that I would make. Further, you’ll know that my position that a one year competition is pretty much useless. In fact, my strategy last year was to pick four stocks at random: I ended up in 2nd place overall for the 2010 contest with a total return (including dividends) of 26.56%. Compare that to the TSX Composite Total Return Index (17.31%) or the S&P 500 (8.73% in Canadian dollar terms).
Continuing in that vein, I’m not going to put much thought into this year’s picks (we are allowed four, and they are equal weighted at the beginning of the year, dividends are included but not re-invested). I’m going to take the first four ideas that pop into my head, taking no less than 10 seconds.
My Shoot From the Hip Picks for 2011
Ford Motor Company: They didn’t need a bailout. Strongest of the big three.
- F (NYSE) – Start price is $16.79.
Silver: Been on a tear, but the historic gold/silver ratio seems off. Might have legs.
- SVR.UN (TSX) – Claymore Silver Bullion Trust, an ETF that tracks the price of silver bullion – Start price is $18.33.
Emerging Markets: Only a few years ago, emerging markets were 8% of the total market cap of the world, but about 50% of GDP. Being the world’s creditors doesn’t hurt.
- VWO (NYSE) – Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF – Start price is $48.15.
CIBC: Me and a lot of friends refer to CIBC as “the bank that runs with scissors”. It’s a double-edged sword – it can really hurt you, and it can really help you.
- CM (TSX) – Start price $78.33
As with the last few years, the competitors and myself will provide quarterly updates. Here are the links to there picks and rationales. Pretty much everyone else puts thought into this, so it would be fun if I placed well again. Wish me luck!
I’m going to copy and paste my original disclaimer used for the first contest:
The Financial Blogger had asked a bunch of other personal finance bloggers if they wanted to participate in a stock picking contest for 2009. The criteria was to pick four securities in equal dollar amounts listed on a Canadian or American exchange (not including derivatives) to just sit on for the duration of 2009 with no changes allowed. We are to provide updates every quarter and the contest ends on the last trading day of 2009. The initial prices will be based on the closing prices of December 31st, 2008 (i.e. yesterday).
I Shy Away From Talking About Individual Picks
I initially hesitated since I was worried that some readers might take some of these picks to heart and actually buy them themselves as part of their investment portfolios. However, I decided to participate anyways deciding that I’ll just disclaimer the heck out of it. To that end:
This Is Just For Funsies
THIS STOCK PICKING CONTEST IS JUST FOR FUN, IT IS NOTHING MORE THAN GAMBLING. DON’T EVEN THINK ABOUT BUYING THE STOCKS LISTED HERE OR ON ANY OF THE OTHER BLOGGERS’ SITES WITHOUT FIRST CONSULTING A PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL ADVISOR. IF YOU BUY THEM ANYWAYS, YOU MUST RAISE YOUR RIGHT HAND BEFORE PLACING THE ORDER AND REPEAT, “I AM A NUTBAR”.
You did all right in the 2010 picks, good luck in 2011!
Looks like momentum strategy!
How do you determine how to exit your positions?
the cynical investor
It would be nice to invest real money, put money where one’s mouth is :).
A minimum of $1,000 and have the contest open to everyone – like facebook that in the end allowed everyone to join :) (now that everyone talks about it with the Goldman investment).
The winner will get a mug and bragging rights, the last 3 ones lots of books about investing (I am sure there will be sponsors for such a contest).
Now your talking …..talk is cheap….like Preet’s stuff in the Gob an Pail….a good mind wasted on fluff